Bitcoin’s Big Moment: Why the Crypto Market Is Primed for a Breakout

The crypto market is a coiled spring, ready to unleash its potential. But it’s stuck in a holding pattern, craving the spark of certainty to ignite a breakout. Right now, global markets are grappling with maximum uncertainty—tariffs, macroeconomic headwinds, and a high-stakes game of chicken between the world’s two economic superpowers, the U.S. and China. Investors, especially in the U.S., are caught in a grey zone: they anticipate fiscal stimulus (think tax cuts) and monetary easing (rate cuts), but the looming tariff clash could spiral if neither side blinks.

In this article, I’ll unpack the macro outlook, dissect the state of the crypto market, compare Bitcoin to gold, and explore how the rising global M2 money supply could fuel Bitcoin’s next move. My goal? To arm you with actionable insights to navigate the volatile months ahead, months that could be life-changing for your portfolio.

Bitcoin’s Resilience in a Shaky Market

Bitcoin is holding strong at ~$84K, a remarkable feat given the market’s uncertainty. Year-to-date, Bitcoin is down 10%, closely mirroring the S&P 500’s 9% drop. Historically, Bitcoin’s high liquidity makes it a lightning rod for market turmoil, reacting more violently than traditional assets. Yet, its newfound status as an institutional darling is stabilising its price. As I noted in my last article, Bitcoin at $80K–$84K is undervalued (see why [here: link to previous article]). Even better, its risk level sits at 31%—a sweet spot for planning your Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy in what could still be a bull run.

Why the U.S. Matters (But It’s Not the Whole Story)

I often get asked: “Why focus so much on the U.S. economy?” It’s a fair question, especially since crypto is global. The answer is twofold. First, the U.S. is the world’s largest economy by GDP and home to the most Bitcoin holders (see below). Second, while I track global M2 money supply across major economies like Europe, China, and Japan, the U.S. remains the linchpin due to its economic dominance and crypto adoption.

Bitcoin &. Gold: A Shifting Dynamic

Let’s zoom in on Bitcoin’s strength with two key charts. First, Bitcoin whale activity is surging. Wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have been climbing steadily since January 2025, signalling that smart money is accumulating during this uncertainty.

Second, on April 7, 2025, Bitcoin hit a death cross (when the 50-day SMA dips below the 200-day SMA), often a precursor to sideways movement in bull markets. Historically, this lasts about two months before a golden cross (50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA) sparks an upward move. That timeline aligns with expected clarity on tariffs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently hinted at agreements in principle with 14 of 15 major trading partners (China being the outlier) in the next 60-90 days.

🌟 Explore More: This interactive graph, along with others (1000+), is available on our platform and updated daily to help you make informed decisions.

Now, let’s talk gold. For 15 years, the Bitcoin/Gold pair has followed a power-law growth pattern (from log space to linear), oscillating within two standard deviations. Currently, Bitcoin is at the -2 standard deviation mark (black line), suggesting it’s poised to outperform gold in the coming months. This isn’t surprising—gold often leads during uncertainty (like China’s tariff-driven gold rush), but Bitcoin tends to catch up. With gold hitting all-time highs, Bitcoin’s relative undervaluation is a compelling opportunity.

M2 Money Supply: Bitcoin’s Hidden Catalyst

Here’s where it gets exciting. Social media is buzzing with a chart showing a 68% correlation between Bitcoin’s upside moves and global M2 money supply growth (yellow line). Over the past few months, M2 has been rising, and Bitcoin typically lags by ~12 weeks. Shift the M2 graph forward by 84 days, and the correlation snaps into focus. This suggests Bitcoin could be due for a run in the coming weeks, especially if positive tariff news breaks the market’s three-month streak of gloom.

The Big Picture: Opportunity Amid Volatility

Bitcoin is primed for an upside breakout if global conditions cooperate. Its fair value is ~$94K, yet it’s trading at $84K with a risk metric that doesn’t scream overvaluation. We’re not at extreme low-risk levels (e.g., 10%), but we’re in a range where bull runs have historically minted generational wealth if positioned correctly.

The wildcard? The U.S. administration’s next moves. While tariffs dominate headlines, don’t overlook the Trump administration’s promises of massive tax cuts and deregulation to unleash innovation. Add to that the Fed’s expected rate cuts—markets are pricing in at least two, with some betting on three or more—and you’ve got a recipe for stimulus that could supercharge risk assets like Bitcoin.

Your Playbook for the Months Ahead

The coming months will be volatile but brimming with opportunity. Patience and positioning are key. Take a deep breath, reassess your risk tolerance, and set 12+ month portfolio goals. Bitcoin’s resilience, whale accumulation, and macroeconomic tailwinds make it a compelling bet. Monitor tariff developments closely, but don’t lose sight of the broader stimulus narrative.

Ready to seize this moment? Adjust your DCA strategy, stay informed, and let’s navigate this wild ride together.

🔍 Want to dive deeper? Explore these metrics and get exclusive insights with our in-depth video breakdowns on our platform.

📩 Stay ahead of the curve—subscribe to my weekly newsletter for actionable crypto insights!