Bitcoin: A Ticking Bomb - Which Way Will the Market Move?

The crypto market feels like a ticking boom, waiting for a spark to ignite an explosive move. But what lies on the other side of that spark? Will it push Bitcoin upwards, or will we see a sharp dive? Here’s a deep dive into the sentiment, data, and indicators that suggest the likely direction of Bitcoin’s next big move.

1. The Pulse of Public Interest

The public’s interest in Bitcoin, gauged by Google search data, is at rock-bottom levels—similar to October 2023, when Bitcoin hovered around $27K. Low interest often signals that we’re not in an overhyped bubble phase, where interest peaks before a burst. Historically, Bitcoin tends to explode when people least expect it.

Move Likelihood: Upwards

2. Power Law Deviation: Bitcoin Valuation

Bitcoin’s current price deviates -24.3% below its power law trendline, meaning it’s in “cool” territory—no signs of overvaluation here. Throughout 2024, Bitcoin has only briefly surpassed its “fair value” without the excessive surge that hints at a bubble or crash (deviation greater than +70%).

Move Likelihood: Upwards

3. Bollinger Bands: Tightly Coiled and Ready to Move

Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands (BB) have been tightening since March 2024, with the price oscillating between $55K and $65K. Historically, when BBs tighten, an intense price move is on the horizon, often triggered by external pressures or market sentiment. With the upper band at $66K and a lower band at $59K, and given today’s economic uncertainties, Bitcoin’s resilience within this range is a promising sign.

Move Likelihood: Upwards

4. Bull Market Support: Staying Strong Amid Liquidity Surge

Bitcoin remains comfortably above its bull market support band (20-week SMA and 21-week EMA). As long as BTC holds this line ($62.4K), the bull market remains intact. With the global shift toward low interest rates and increased liquidity, conditions favour Bitcoin’s growth.

Move Likelihood: Upwards

5. FOMO Level: A Spark to Ignite Frenzy

The FOMO level is a unique metric that helps pinpoint when Bitcoin is on the verge of a parabolic move, typically between 100-300%. Currently, Bitcoin is above the critical $62.7K FOMO threshold. If it holds here, we could see a surge of interest that breaks Bitcoin into six figures and pushes the total crypto market cap to over $11 trillion.

Move Likelihood: Upwards

6. Bitcoin Risk Metric: All Indicators Point to Lower Risk

My exclusive Bitcoin risk metric, which combines on-chain and off-chain data, now mirrors levels last seen when BTC traded at $26.2K (September 2023). This risk profile suggests that Bitcoin’s next substantial move is more likely up than down.

Move Likelihood: Upwards

Conclusion

Each of these key metrics paints a picture of a market poised for an upside breakout rather than a crash. Based on the data and past patterns, I believe Bitcoin’s next volatile move will lean toward growth, setting the stage for an explosive Q4. Get ready and stay prepared.